Nov 6 2009
Forecast Update: RF optical components for cable TV
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Over the forecast period (2009-14), investment in HFC networks will recover from recession-induced caution but will remain muted as MSOs continue to focus on other technologies such as DOCSIS 3.0 to deliver increased broadband speeds. New upstream applications have not emerged. One next-gen architecture -- RFoG (radio frequency over glass) -- bears watching as it bridges cable and PON standards.
Executive summary
In a nutshell
The author's view
Forecast summary
Recession recovery this year followed by cyclical trough in 2011
Definition of forecast coverage
Short-term dynamics: cyclical decline compounded by macroeconomics
Economic slowdown had direct impact
MSO revenues healthy; capex declines but remains high
Headend expenditures compete with optics for capex
Long-range market forecast drivers and barriers
Drivers of optical spending
Barriers to optical spending
Swing votes: trends to watch
Product group forecasts
Forecast has peaks and valleys over the next five years
Downstream DWDM QAM transmitters for narrowcast
Downstream 1310nm and O-band WDM transmitters: fiber pair gain
Downstream receivers
Upstream
Video overlay for broadcast highly efficient in terms of transmitters and amplifiers
Market scenarios and early warning signs
Potential good news
Potential bad news
Optimistic scenario: With "easy" node segmentation opportunities used up, need for all-fiber more attractive
Logical node splits
Physical node splits
Fiber deep
New RFoG products
RFoG fiber plant compatible with PON deployment
Pessimistic scenario: alternative ways to satisfy broadband demand
Appendix A: Cable optics supply chain
Comparison to telecom supply chain
Equipment vendors (component customers)
Harmonic
Motorola
Teleste
Component and subsystem vendors
Applied Optoelectronics Inc.
Emcore (acquired JDSU)
Finisar (acquired Optium)
Furukawa
Sumitomo (acquired Eudyna)
Mitsubishi
Appendix B: MSO capex intentions
A snapshot of eleven leading MSOs
List of Tables
Table 1: Component vendor roles
Table 2: Leading MSO revenues, capex, and statements
List of figures
Figure 1: Market forecast, optical subsystems market for RF optics into cable TV
Figure 2: Market forecast, RF optical components for cable TV, global
Figure 3: Generalized cable network showing functions included in forecast
Figure 4: Example of subsystem revenues history, 2005-09
Figure 5: Representative system revenues by quarter, 1Q05-2Q09
Figure 6: Subsystem forecast by product group, 2006-14
Figure 7: Blast-and-split architecture, showing that the addition of a third node requires a new DWDM transmitter
Figure 8: Home-run architecture showing logical but not physical node splits
Figure 9: WDM for home-run architecture physical node splitting (additional split after logical node split shown in Figure 8)
Figure 10: Generic RFoG architecture showing forecasted components
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